National Bureau of Economic Research | NBER
WEBThe National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a leading source of economic research and policy analysis. Explore the latest publications, news articles, and events from the NBER on topics such as labor, health, retirement, entrepreneurship, and more.
Business Cycle Dating | NBER
WEBThe NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles based on monthly and quarterly measures of aggregate real economic activity. The most recent peak occurred in February 2020 and the most recent trough in April 2020.
How the US-China Trade War Affected the Rest of the World
WEBThe US and China imposed tariffs on each other and other countries in 2018 and 2019, reducing their bilateral trade but increasing trade among bystander countries. The NBER Digest summarizes a working paper that analyzes the impact of the trade war on global trade flows and winners and losers.
Research | NBER
WEBThe NBER conducts and disseminates independent, cutting-edge, non-partisan research that advances economic knowledge and informs policy makers and the business community. Explore the latest working papers, books, projects and publications on various topics of public interest, such as inflation, criminal justice, electric vehicles, and health.
Unpacking the Causes of Pandemic-Era Inflation in the US
WEBThe web page summarizes a working paper that studies the historical comovement of wages, prices, and inflation expectations to measure the relative contributions of various factors to US inflation since 2020. It finds that energy, food, and shortage shocks were the main drivers of inflation in its early stages, but tight labor markets and wage pressures have become the main factors behind the ...
Long-Run Trends and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
WEBJun 30, 2021 · The natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate at which inflation remains stable. This article reviews the drivers of the trend decline in unemployment and the challenges of estimating the natural rate in the presence of long-run trends such as gender convergence and dual aging.
US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions | NBER
WEBMar 14, 2023 · The NBER provides data on the dates of peak and trough months and quarters of the US business cycle since 1854. See the historical record of expansions and contractions, their durations, and the sources and methods of the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee.
The Economic Impact of Climate Change over Time and Space
WEBJan 5, 2022 · The article reviews the research of Klaus Desmet and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg on the economic costs of climate change and the role of spatial adaptation. They use dynamic spatial models to analyze the effects of temperature change, trade, migration, and local growth across regions.
Wealth Inequality in the United States - NBER
WEBJun 30, 2021 · This article summarizes four studies on wealth inequality in the US from 1962 to 2019, focusing on the role of leverage, asset prices, racial gap, and taxation. It shows how wealth inequality rose and fell over time, and how different factors influenced the median and top wealth levels.
The Benefits of Rehabilitative Incarceration | NBER
WEBApr 6, 2020 · This article examines how incarceration affects recidivism, employment, and family and criminal networks using Norwegian data and a quasi-random assignment of judge stringency. It finds that imprisonment lowers crime, increases employment, and has positive spillovers to others, but only for those who were not working before prison.